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2025-05-28 | All chapters

Beijing, 28^th May 2025 – The European Union Chamber of Commerce in China, in partnership with Roland Berger, today released its European Business in China Business Confidence Survey 2025 (BCS). The key finding is that European business confidence currently sits at or around record low levels for many key metrics, despite several policy initiatives geared towards strengthening the economy and the improving business environment for foreign investment having been launched over the past two years. Nevertheless, an increasing share of respondents report onshoring of activities into China, demonstrating the continued competitiveness of Chinese supply chains in this regard.

Faced with greater challenges, a record 73% (+5 percentage points (pp)) reported that doing business in China became more difficult year-on-year (y-o-y) in 2024. 

• 71% (+1pp y-o-y) expect their China business to be negatively impacted over the next two years by China’s economic slowdown, and 60% (-1pp y-o-y) are pessimistic about the outlook for competitive pressure in their sector over the same timeframe.
• A record 63% (+5pp y-o-y) missed business opportunities in 2024 due to market access and regulatory barriers, while 44% expect to see an increase in the number of regulatory obstacles faced over the coming five years.
• 52% reported that the business environment in China become more politicised in 2024 – a reflection of escalating geopolitical tensions. This percentage has likely increased as members were polled prior to the US-China April 2025 tariff hikes.   

Record low-levels reported optimism about their near- and medium-term profitability (12%) and growth (29%) outlook, and a re-evaluation of the China market is taking place.

• A historic low of 38% report plans to expand their China operations, compared to 36% who have no such plans, with the remainder undecided. The percentage of members indicating cost cutting is being planned equalled last year’s record high (52%).
• In a notable development, an increased proportion of survey respondents report further onshoring of their supply chains into China: 26% (+5pp y-o-y) are partly or fully onshoring their supply chains into the country; while 13% are offshoring or in the process of establishing alternative supply chains outside of the country. The main drivers underpinning this development are the need to strengthen supply chain resilience and to leverage competitive Chinese supply chains.

“Uncertainty resulting from escalating trade and geopolitical tensions, concerns about China’s domestic economy and persistent producer price deflation weigh on the minds of both European and Chinese companies,” said Jens Eskelund, president of the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China. “Our key message to policymakers is: the disparity between supply growth and demand is eroding both profits and business confidence. Achieving a better balance, will not only benefit companies and make China a more attractive investment destination but may also lead to a reduction in trade tensions.”

“A new, more fragmented globalisation is taking shape, while China’s economy is stabilising with slower growth and greater competition – signalling transformation rather than decline,” said Denis Depoux, global managing director of Roland Berger. “This evolving landscape presents fresh challenges for multinational companies, requiring highly localised China and Asia operations, fully integrated from R&D to customer service. MNCs must leverage regional supply chain hubs, partnerships with Chinese firms and local ecosystems, and innovative business models to successfully adapt and compete in this dynamic environment.”

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中国欧盟商会呼吁解决通缩环境下供需失衡难题

          北京，2025年5月28日——中国欧盟商会联合罗兰贝格今日发布《商业信心调查2025》。报告指出，尽管过去两年支持经济发展、改善外资营商环境的系列政策举措频出，但当前欧盟企业的商业信心已在多个维度降至或濒临历史最低水平。与此同时，越来越多的受访企业将其业务回流至中国，这表明中国供应链仍具竞争力。

          面临更为严峻的挑战， 73%受访企业表示2024年在华营商更为艰难。这一比例较去年增长5个百分点，创历史新高。

• 71%（同比增长1个百分点）受访企业表示，未来两年内，中国经济增长放缓将对其在华业务产生负面影响。60%（同比降低1个百分点）受访企业对未来两年内所在行业竞争压力的前景持悲观态度。
• 63%（同比增长 5 个百分点）受访企业在2024 年因监管壁垒或市场准入阻碍而错失商机，创历史新高。44% 受访企业预计未来五年监管壁垒将有所增多。
• 52% 受访企业表示，2024年中国的商业环境愈发政治化，这反映出地缘政治紧张局势持续升级。由于受访企业是在2025 年 4 月中美关税上调前接受的调查，这一比例实际可能会更高。

         报告指出，受访企业对近、中期盈利能力（12%）和增长前景（29%）的乐观情绪降至历史最低水平，目前各方正在重新评估中国市场。

• 38%受访企业计划扩大其在华业务规模，创历史新低。36%受访企业暂无计划。其余企业暂未决定。52%受访企业表示计划在来年削减成本，创历史新高。
• 值得关注的是，越来越多的受访企业表示进一步强化了在中国的在岸外包供应链：26%（同比增长 5 个百分点）受访企业将供应链在岸外包到中国；13% 受访企业正在将供应链从中国大陆离岸外包出去，或在中国以外建立替代供应链。这主要是为了增强供应链韧性，充分发挥中国供应链的竞争优势。

         中国欧盟商会主席彦辞表示：“由于贸易摩擦与地缘政治风险加剧、中国国内经济仍面临挑战，以及生产者价格持续通缩，欧洲和中国企业心生忧虑。商会向政策制定者传达的关键信息是：供需失衡问题正持续削弱企业利润和商业信心。实现供需平衡不仅将惠及企业，使中国成为更具吸引力的投资目的地，还可能有助于缓解贸易紧张局势。”

         罗兰贝格全球管理委员会联席总裁戴璞先生表示：“一种新型的、更具碎片化特征的全球化格局正在形成，而中国经济则在增速放缓与竞争加剧中趋于稳定——这标志着经济形态的转型而非衰退。不断演变的格局给跨国公司带来了全新的挑战，亟需构建深度本地化的中国及亚洲运营体系，实现从研发到客户服务的全链条整合。为在动态环境中实现成功转型与竞争突围，跨国企业必须有效运用区域供应链枢纽优势，深化与中国企业及本土生态系统的战略合作，并通过创新商业模式实现适应性变革。”

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